In its update published at the end of 2018, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicated that trade conflicts, rising interest rates and crises in emerging markets were negatively impacting the global economy and economic growth was slowing. The ongoing trade dispute between China and the United States, in particular, is taking effect. The IMF expects global growth to slow somewhat in 2018 from the originally estimated 3.9 % to a plus of 3.7 %. Germany's economy cooled down even more, growing at a rate of only 1.3%.
In addition to the "negative effects" of trade policy measures, the IMF names the growing
economic troubles in a series of emerging markets and developing economies – particularly the higher borrowing costs related to rising lending rates and higher oil prices – as reasons for its gloomier growth forecast.